Session: 12-06-01 Blue Economy VI: Offshore Decommissioning, Circular Economy, and Maritime Emissions Reduction

Submission Number: 182053

Research on the Evaluation of Safety Level of China's Marine Oil and Gas Value Chain 

Ensuring the security of energy resources and important industrial and supply chains is an important aspect of maintaining economic security and sustainable economic and social development. China has basically established a complete marine oil and gas industry system. The increase in offshore crude oil production has accounted for over 60% of the total national crude oil increase for four consecutive years, and the development of the offshore oil and gas industry has entered a new stage. However, the complex and harsh environment of offshore oil and gas development determines that its safety risks are much higher than those on land. Currently and in the future, both the international environment and domestic conditions are undergoing profound and complex changes, with a significant increase in global turbulence sources and risk points. Scientific statistical measurement and evaluation of the safety level of the marine oil and gas industry chain are crucial.
This study constructs a multi index comprehensive evaluation index system to achieve multi angle evaluation of the safety level of the marine oil and gas industry chain. Firstly, design evaluation dimensions. Design safety level evaluation dimensions based on the connotation of industrial chain security, including integrity, stability, control, and competitiveness. Secondly, select statistical indicators. Select statistical indicators from the core competitiveness, external dependence, and independent innovation capability of products and technologies in key links of the industrial chain, the availability and substitutability of key resources, raw materials, and markets in each link of the industrial chain, and the degree of inter industry correlation, and establish an indicator system. Again, collect data from multiple sources. Conduct a questionnaire survey on key enterprises in collaboration with the three major oil companies and the shipbuilding industry association that have maintained long-term cooperative relationships. Use the ocean gross domestic product accounting data to extract the national economic input-output table and obtain statistical survey data. Then, determine the weights of the indicators. Based on the RankNet ranking learning algorithm, subjective and objective weight coefficients are integrated into the comprehensive decision-making model, with the goal of minimizing the comprehensive ranking loss function to solve the indicator weight coefficients. Finally, evaluate the safety level and analyze the evolution trend. Evaluate the safety level of the marine oil and gas industry chain from multiple perspectives such as comprehensive, dimensional, and industrial chain links, and conduct comparative analysis and dynamic analysis.

Presenting Author: Jingli Zhao National Marine Data and Information Service

Presenting Author Biography: Jingli Zhao , a senior engineer, has long been engaged in research on marine industry analysis and evaluation, as well as sustainable development of the blue economy. She has accumulated considerable academic achievements on marine industry analysis and indicator system construction.

Authors:

Jingli Zhao National Marine Data and Information Service
Yipu Zhou National Marine Data and Information Service
Weiling Song National Marine Data and Information Service
Yue Deng National Marine Data and Information Service