Session: 02-11-01 Reliability Based Maintenance

Submission Number: 175806

Bayesian Network-Based Decision Support for Maintenance Optimization of Marine Internal Combustion Engine Using OREDA Reliability Data 

The maintenance of marine internal combustion engines plays a pivotal role in ensuring the reliability, safety, and cost-effectiveness of maritime operations. As ships increasingly operate under tight economic and environmental constraints, effective maintenance planning has become essential to minimizing unplanned downtime, extending component life, and meeting regulatory requirements. Traditional maintenance approaches, such as fixed-interval or corrective strategies, often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty of marine operations and the complex interdependencies among engine subsystems. Consequently, there is a growing need for data-driven and probabilistic methods that can support more rational and transparent maintenance decision-making. This paper presents a Bayesian Network (BN)-based decision support framework for maintenance optimization of marine internal combustion engines, integrating reliability data from the OREDA handbook with ship-specific operational information. The proposed framework uses BNs to model causal relationships between technical, human, and operational factors that influence engine reliability. Each subsystem - such as lubrication, cooling, and monitoring systems - is represented as a probabilistic node, characterized by failure rates, repair times, and failure modes derived from OREDA. Through probabilistic inference, the BN estimates the likelihood of component and system-level failures under varying conditions, enabling the assessment of how maintenance actions, operational factors, or design modifications affect overall reliability. In parallel, Life-Cycle Cost Assessment (LCCA) is integrated into the framework to quantify the economic consequences of maintenance strategies, including preventive and corrective actions, repair costs, and downtime losses. By combining reliability modelling with cost analysis, the framework supports the identification of optimal maintenance intervals and the evaluation of alternative maintenance policies based on expected total cost and associated risk. Furthermore, the approach allows the incorporation of expert judgment and uncertainty in data, providing a flexible and adaptive decision-support environment. The paper outlines the structure of the Bayesian Network model, the method for incorporating OREDA data into reliability assessment, and the procedures for maintenance cost evaluation and decision optimization.

Presenting Author: Ivana Jovanović Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture

Presenting Author Biography: Ivana Jovanović was born on August 23, 1994, in Čapljina, Bosnia and Herzegovina. She completed her secondary education at the grammar school in Metković in 2013. She holds a degree in Mechanical Engineering from the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture, University of Zagreb (UNIZAG FSB), with a specialization in Engineering Modelling and Computer Simulations (thesis topic: Numerical modelling of dynamic deformation processes of thin copper sheets).
During her studies, she worked for several years as a student demonstrator at the Chair of Technical Mechanics, assisting in the courses such as Mechanics 1 and 2, Strength of Materials, Numerical Methods in Mechanical Engineering, and the Finite Element Method.
Ivana has been employed as an Assistant at the Chair of Marine Engineering at UNIZAG FSB since August 1, 2020. As part of her doctoral studies, she participated in the ERASMUS academic mobility program at the University of Strathclyde in Glasgow, United Kingdom. In addition to her research work, she is actively involved in teaching activities and has contributed to the preparation and execution of several national and international research projects (Croatian Science Foundation, Horizon Europe, Interreg ADRION, Bilateral Croatian-Chinese projects, etc.).
She is a co-author of more than 30 scientific papers published in journals and conference proceedings (https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Ivana-Jovanovic-14, https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7029-2526).

Authors:

Ivana Jovanović Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
Neven Hadžić Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture
Nikola Vladimir Faculty of Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture