Session: 11-07-01 Petroleum Production: Offshore Systems and Subsea Operations

Submission Number: 180881

Decision to Adopt New Technologies in the Development of Offshore Oil and Gas Fields: Proposal for a Prescriptive Decision-Making Model 

The objective of this article is to present a proposal for a prescriptive decision-making methodology implementable in a computational tool to support managers responsible for developing offshore oil and gas fields in their decision to adopt products resulting from technological innovations. The article will present a literature review on the state of the art in decision-making applied to innovation and will discuss the challenges faced by managers responsible for developing offshore oil and gas fields. It will then consider the types of uncertainty present in the problems and past attempts to address them. Subsequently, the article will present the proposed methodology, detailing each aspect. Considering the convenience of using real options to solve this problem, the article also describes how Monte Carlo simulation will be applied to update both the structure and parameters of the decision trees for each evaluation round over time. This article will present the successful application of the methodology in a real-world case study. To this end, we will demonstrate the adoption of the technology embedded in a formal decision-making process. The text will describe the problem definition, the decision-makers' objectives, highlight the identified alternatives, list the consequences, and address uncertainties. Regarding the latter, the article will present, in detail, the uncertainties related to the regulatory agency's acceptance of the technology, its implementation within the company itself, and supplier compliance. Additionally, we will address uncertainties related to the technology's readiness date for field use - schedule uncertainty. As a result, we will present the chosen alternatives, a tornado diagram with its sensitivity analysis, the net present value of each alternative, and their cumulative probability distributions. The article presents an innovative way to address the combination of "ok/no-ok" uncertainties, including those related to the availability dates of a technology. Furthermore, we also introduce the behaviour over time as a dimension for the analysis. It highlights how these uncertainties affect the net present value of each alternative. Additionally, the article discusses the inclusion of new decision-making aspects, such as risk tolerance and complex objective functions.

Presenting Author: Joaquim Rocha Dos Santos University of São Paulo

Presenting Author Biography: Joaquim Rocha dos Santos has graduated from the Naval Academy as a Line Officer in 1982. For three years, he served aboard destroyers and frigates of the Brazilian Navy. In 1985, he started the professional part of his electrical engineering course, with an option in automation and control, and graduated at the end of 1988. Moving to the Engi­neering Corps, he had the opportunity to work on platform and combat systems of surface ships, submarines, and simulators. He completed his master's degree in 2007 and his doctorate in 2012, both with research in the area of simulation of complex systems using system dynamics. In 2008, he joined the Navy Reserve after 32 years of active duty. Since 2009, he has taught several courses in the Continuing Edu­cation Program of the Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo. Since 2012, he has taught two postgraduate courses at the Department of Naval and Ocean Engineering of the sarne school as a collaborating professor. ln 2018, he joined the Risk Assessment and Management Analysis Laboratory, where he holds the position of sen­ior researcher in systems theory applied to security. ln 2021, he completed his post-doctoral period in sys­tem thinking applied to system safety. His research interests include various simulation paradigms, system theory, decision analysis under uncertainty, STAMP, and systems engineering

Authors:

Joaquim Rocha Dos Santos University of São Paulo
Nathan Vasconcelos Ribeiro University of São Paulo
Marcos Vinicius Silva Nobrega PETROBRAS - Petróleo Brasileiro S.A.
Danilo Colombo PETRÓLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.
Marcelo Ramos Martins University of São Paulo