Session: 15-09-01 Marine Environment and Offshore Structure Design under Climate Changes

Submission Number: 181870

Storm Surge Response to Climate Change During Winter Storms: Spatially Heterogeneous Surge Height Modifications Under Pseudo-Global-Warming Scenarios 

Winter storms are among the most impactful extreme weather systems affecting Northeast Asia, frequently generating severe storm surges across the Yellow and Bohai Seas. These semi-enclosed marginal seas host China’s largest offshore photovoltaic installations and a rapidly expanding array of ocean renewable energy infrastructures, making them highly vulnerable to surge-induced hazards. This study investigates how storm surges associated with winter storms respond to regional climate change using a pseudo–global-warming (PGW) framework. Atmospheric boundary conditions were constructed from model outputs under three future emission pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), which were used to force a high-resolution surge model to assess climate-driven modifications in surge dynamics. The results reveal pronounced spatial heterogeneity in surge height responses. Along the eastern coasts of the Yellow and Bohai Seas, storm surges intensify under warmer climates, while those along the western shores tend to weaken. This asymmetric response indicates an amplification of existing spatial disparities, with high-energy regions exhibiting further intensification and low-energy regions experiencing additional attenuation. Such tendencies pose growing risks to densely developed coastal zones with concentrated wind-power and photovoltaic facilities. Meanwhile, the surge response exhibits a distinctly nonlinear relationship with the magnitude of climatic warming, arising primarily from asynchronous and spatially heterogeneous changes in wind speed and direction. Altered wind fields modify the divergence of wind stress near surge peaks, producing localized amplification or attenuation in surge heights. Temporal–spectral analyses further show that climate change enhances the energy of low-frequency components while strengthening high-frequency tide–surge nonlinear interactions, the latter exerting dominant control on extreme surge behavior over short timescales. Overall, this study highlights the complex and spatially uneven nature of storm-surge sensitivity to climate change in mid-latitude marginal seas, underscoring the need for region-specific adaptation strategies for coastal energy infrastructure and hazard management.

Presenting Author: Luming Shi State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Ocean University of China

Presenting Author Biography: Dr. Luming Shi has extensive experience in numerical modeling of marine hydrodynamics, focusing on extreme oceanic and meteorological events (storm surges, meteotsunamis, and estuarine dynamics).

Authors:

Hui Liang Ocean University of China
Xuecheng Zhang Ocean University of China
Luming Shi State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Ocean University of China
Xinyu Wang Ocean University of China
Aijun Li Ocean University of China
Haoqiang Wei Ocean University of China
Liujie Ma Ocean University of China