Session: 01-04-02 Design and Anaysis - II

Submission Number: 157511

Offshore Oil Wells Selection: Methodology and Computational Process for Configuration Selection 

Approximately ninety-two per cent of Brazilian oil production comes from oil fields more than 300 miles offshore, in water depths of 2,000 meters (6,000 feet) and reservoirs at 7,000 meters (20,000 feet). Despite the attractiveness of production from these wells, which total an average of 30,000 barrels per day, operating in these environmental conditions poses significant operational and technological challenges. Choosing the best configuration ensures reliable, low-downtime, and safe wells. This decision is made during early field development when designers face great uncertainty. We developed a methodology and implemented it in simulation software to contribute to choosing the best configuration. The methodology includes defining a set of indicators to evaluate the integrity of the oil well and the reliability of its production. The indicators include the probability of integrity loss, blowout occurrence, downtime extension due to workover operations, operation costs, and financial indicators.

The methodology considers the structural model of the oil well configuration, the survey of its integrity cut sets, equipment behavior, failure occurrence, failure modes rates, inspections, maintenance, and repair policy. The simulation software utilizes discrete event and Monte Carlo simulations to simulate failure generation and other intrinsic randomness in the system. It implements the methodology developed and can quantitatively evaluate the designs of the different configuration options candidates for a specific project by raising the value of each configuration indicator. This article presents the simulation software and comments on details about the methodology embedded in it. Additionally, the article presents the results and comparison of four different oil well configurations. One of these configurations is conventional, and the others include additional characteristics that change its integrity and production downtime. Results show that some of these requirements may conflict in some scenarios. The paper discusses the results in detail. The results obtained with the methodology and software developed allow the assessment of the impact of prescribed inspections the time to prioritize repairs, and paves the way for developing and implementing risk-based inspection and maintenance.

Presenting Author: Joaquim Rocha Dos Santos University of São Paulo

Presenting Author Biography: Joaquim Rocha dos Santos He graduated from the Naval Academy, as a Line Officer, in 1982. For three years, he served aboard destroyers and frigates of the Brazilian Navy. ln 1985, he started the professional part of his electrical engineering course, with an option in automation and control., having graduated at the end of 1988. Moving to the Engineering Corps, he had the opportunity to work on platform and combat systems of surface ships, submarines, and simulators. He completed his master's degree in 2007 and his doctorate in 2012, both with research in the area of simulation of complex systems using system dynamics. ln 2008 he joined the navy reserve after 32 years of active duty. Since 2009 he has taught several courses in the Continuing Education
Program of the Polytechnic School of the University of São Paulo. Since 2012, he has taught two postgraduate courses at the Department of Naval and Ocean Engineering of the sarne school as a collaborating professor. ln 2018, he joined the Risk Assessment and Management Analysis Laboratory, where he holds the position of senior
researcher in systems theory applied to security. ln 2021, he completed his post-doctoral period in system thinking applied to system safety. His research interests include various simulation paradigms, system theory, decision analysis under uncertainty, STAMP, and systems engineering.