Session: 04-01-03 Flexible Pipes & Umbilicals III

Paper Number: 133878

133878 - Probabilistic Data Envelopment Analysis Applied to Risk Based Inspection of Flexible Pipes 

Flexible pipelines and risers are widely used by oil and gas operators in Brazil in their subsea systems for offshore operations. These operators have teams of multidisciplinary specialists working on the integrity management of their assets, as well as a large amount of inspection data, a database of real failures and failure predictive tools. However, inspection scope planning is based on the judgment of the experts operating the assets. With the advent of new technologies, the use of data science and decision-making tools has helped engineers to make more assertive and less subjective decisions. To ensure the operational safety of subsea flexible pipelines and risers, it is essential to identify the main failure modes that can lead to the total loss of structural integrity and all the failure mechanisms that will lead to each failure mode as well.   This work will present a risk-based inspection methodology for offshore flexible pipeline and risers based on data envelopment analysis (DEA). The present methodology considers the organization of each failure mechanism through event trees, allowing the visualization of the chronological occurrence of nonconformities in stages until the failure mode is reached. Recent work has shown risk analyzes using data envelopment analysis based only on events (nonconformities) detectable by inspection. The proposed methodology involves establishing a relative risk ranking for a group of flexible pipelines, based on event trees formed by events detectable or not during inspection, considering their probability of occurrence over time.

Presenting Author: Caroline Ferraz COPPE/UFRJ

Presenting Author Biography: Caroline is a Naval Architect and Marine engineer working as a researcher at Subsea Technology Laboratory. She is being working with risers and pipelines since 2009 in both industry and academia.

Authors:

Caroline Ferraz COPPE/UFRJ
Theodoro A. Netto COPPE/UFRJ
Marcelo Igor L. Souza COPPE/UFRJ
Henrique Honorato COPPE/UFRJ
Alyson G. Vaillant Petrobras
Anderson B. Custódio Petrobras
Lucas R. S. Ferreira Petrobras
Eduardo V. Meirelles COPPE/UFRJ
Joao V. Moita COPPE/UFRJ