Session: 04-01-06 Flexible Pipes and Umbilicals VI

Paper Number: 105095

105095 - Dea Model Applied to Risk Based Inspection for Offshore Flexible Pipelines With Virtual Relative Risk Frontier From Event Trees 

The identification of the main nonconformities (NCIs) that occur in offshore flexible ducts, as well as the recognition of failure mechanisms through the event trees, are fundamental points for the generation of the risk-based inspection methodology (RBI-Flex) of these Structures. To ensure the operational safety of submarine flexible ducts, it is essential to identify the main modes of failure that can generate the total loss of structural integrity by leakage. In the methodology proposed here, the Submarine Risers System will be subdivided into inspection regions, to better calculate the relative risk of failure to the DEA (Data Envelopment Analysis). The organization of fault mechanisms through event trees allows the visualization of the chronological occurrence of nonconformities in internships until the final failure mode is reached, which will be the top event.
This article aims to propose a bidimensional and multidimensional dea model for the relative risk assessment of loss of integrity in a scenario whose risk boundary is calibrated by virtual ducts. In this sense, it is possible to model for the submarine system the temporal evolution of nonconformities that occurs at each time of inspection time. The input weights will be valued based on the stage number that each nonconformity will occupy in the event trees. Focusing on the I-Tube risk inspection region, the proposed dea model will be restricted weights to prevent low discriminatory power of more and less critical ducts.
From this perspective, it was possible to run the Dea model with and without the presence of virtual ducts, where the effects of the influence of this virtual boundary on risk factor generation was observed. From the two -dimensional deaa model, the virtual relative risk boundary was plotted, where the radial migration of ducts towards the maximum risk boundary Dea was evident due to the emergence of new NCIs. Whereas, in the absence of virtual ducts, the effect of displacement of maximum risk borders dea is better observed during the temporal progress of NCIs. From the Multidimensional DEA model, the radar graphic visualization was proposed to observe the relative risk variation between each moment of modeling, which allowed inspection teams to detect which are the most critical ducts. Based on both modeling, relative risk ranking will be proposed to guide the inspection teams in decision making regarding the inspection intervals to be performed.

Presenting Author: Henrique Jaques Honorato FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO - COPPE/UFRJ

Presenting Author Biography: Graduated in Full Degree in Physics from Universidade Federal Fluminense - UFF (2006) and Master in Naval and Oceanic Engineering from Instituto Alberto Luiz Coimbra Graduate and Research Engineering at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro- COPPE/UFRJ (2009). Since 2013 he has been a Federal Public Servant,
being Professor of Basic Technical and Technological Teaching of Physics at Colégio Pedro II - Federal Public Teaching (Professor in Exclusive Dedication Regime). He worked at Colégio Santo Inácio - Jesuits/RJ, Colégio Salesiano, Santa Monica and State Teaching in Rio de Janeiro. Has basic English completed at Cultura Inglesa
Niterói (basic level of grammar and conversation) in 2013. Has articles published in engineering congresses and international magazines such as: Rio Oil&Gás, Rio Pipeline, Brazilian Society of Naval Engineering (SOBENA), Marine Structures. In 2017, he completed the Arrais Amador course recognized by the Brazilian Navy and Port Authority of the State of Rio de Janeiro. In 2018, he completed the first year of the Gastronomy course at the IGA (Brazilian cuisine), Gastronomic Institute of the Americas, being a Cook Professional. In 2019, he completed the second year of the gastronomy course at IGA Niterói (international cuisine). In 2020 he obtained a degree 3 in Jiu-jitsu black belt Brazilian. In 2019, he joined the MARLIN research group (Risk Methodology and Integrated Logistics) at LTS/COPPE/UFRJ contributing to the project: "Development of Integrated IBR and Logistics Methodology for Integrity Management of Subsea Oil & Gas Production Systems." In the years 2020, 2021
and 2022 the project has been taking place applying the risk model developed at M.Sc (COPPE/UFRJ - 2009) based on the DEA Operational Research.

Authors:

Henrique Jaques Honorato FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO - COPPE/UFRJ
Theodoro Antoun Netto FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO - COPPE/UFRJ
Marcelo Igor Lourenço De Souza FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO - COPPE/UFRJ
Carolina Ferraz Netto FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO - COPPE/UFRJ