Session: 02-04-02 Probabilistic and Spectral Wave Modelling (Co-hosted with the Ian Young Honoring Symposium)

Paper Number: 101961

101961 - A Joint Probability Distribution Model for Multivariate Wind and Wave Conditions 

This paper will describe a joint statistical model that has been fitted to data of wind and wave conditions for an offshore location at South Brittany. The data are from a numerical model and are publicly available for research purposes and contain hourly values for several wind and wave variables over a period of 32 years. The joint distribution presented in this paper will consider the variables wind direction, mean wind speed, significant wave height, wave direction and peak period. In addition, a conditional model for turbulence given wind speed is introduced to yield an additional variable for the joint model. The joint model is constructed as a product of marginal and conditional models for the various variables, and the full paper will describe the data, some pre-processing steps and the fitted model. Additionally, the fitted models for the wave parameters will be used to construct environmental contours for the wave conditions. Different model alternatives will be explored, and in particular for significant wave height, various models are used to obtain different extreme value estimates, illustrating the uncertainties involved in extrapolating statistical models beyond the support of the data.

 

Such joint distribution models are important input for design of offshore structures, and in particular for offshore wind turbines and other marine renewable energy installation.

Presenting Author: Erik Vanem DNV Group Research & Development

Presenting Author Biography: Research scientist at DNV.
PhD in Statistics from UiO.

Authors:

Erik Vanem DNV Group Research & Development
Elias Fekhari EDF R&D
Nikolay Dimitrov DTU
Mark Kelly DTU
Alexis Cousin IFPEN
Martin Guiton IFPEN