Session: 07-04-01 Vessels in Ice and model test

Paper Number: 105765

105765 - A Preliminary Investigation of Risk Control Options for Maritime Accidents in Arctic Waters 

Effective risk control options (RCOs) are the key issue for risk management of maritime accidents, especially for practical risk prevention and control in a rapidly changing environment in ice-covered Arctic waters. This paper conducts the identification of RCOs for maritime accidents in Arctic watersproposes by using a text mining-based  approachresearch method for risk control measures for ship navigation in Arctic waters. First of allly, we recognize the potential risk control measures (RCMs) for maritime accidents through by deeply excavating from the global marine accident investigation reports (MAIR) in Arctic waters and the extensive ice-covered waters based on grounded theory. Second, we identify the critical RCMs considering the frequency of the potential RCMs in the existing MAIRs and related references, and the relationship between risk influencing factors (RIFs) from environmental, technical, human and organizational aspects. Third, we further analyze the dependencies among RCMs, risk influencing factors (RIFs) and maritime accidents in Arctic waters. text mining of marine accident investigation reports (MAIR) in Arctic waters, risk control measures (RCMs) in each report are identified and screened by experts, then RCMs are matched with RIFs involved in each accident report, and finally the effectiveness of risk control measures is evaluated in the form of an expert questionnaire to provide ideas for risk management and risk response in Arctic navigation. Identification of risk control measures: Through rooting theory, Tthe text mining software NVivo is used to conduct preliminary text mining of the  collected incident investigation reports in Arctic watersMAIRs. Furthermore, we propose RCOs for the typical maritime accidents (e.g., ship-ice collision, grounding, fire/explosion) in ice-covered waters based on the critical RCMs. , and then the risk control measures in each incident investigation report are extracted through manual screening and sorting by experts. Assessing the effectiveness of RCMs: The effectiveness of risk control measures is evaluated using an expert questionnaire in combination with the TFNs method. The  results can be used to inform the development ofmake RCOs in  measures to avoid and control accidents during Arctic shipping.

Presenting Author: Si Yuan Gu Shanghai Maritime University

Presenting Author Biography: Siyuan Gu, male, graduated from Shanghai Maritime University in June 2021 with a bachelor's degree in engineering, and is currently studying at Shanghai Maritime University as a master's student in Transportation Planning and Management. My tutor is Shanshan Fu. My current research is in the field of Arctic ship navigation safety.

Authors:

Si Yuan Gu Shanghai Maritime University
Shan Shan Fu Shanghai Maritime University
Yue Zhang Shanghai Maritime University