Session: 07-9-01 Scenario-Based Risk Management for Ice-Covered Waters: LRF- CEPOLAR Activities

Paper Number: 80767

80767 - Scenario-Based Risk Management for Arctic Waters 

Arctic shipping is on the rise, driven by multiple factors, including the demand for natural resources, climate change, and technological development. While this is a positive development with numerous benefits for society, it is necessary to recognize that maritime operations in the Arctic pose significant risks to people, the environment, and property. To help ship designers, operators, owners, and other stakeholders in managing those risks, this paper outlines recommended practice for scenario-based risk management for icy waters. The recommended practice covers both operational risk management, involving the assessment of short-term voyage-specific risks, as well as the assessment of ships' long-term extreme (design) hull ice loads and structural response. For operational risk management, an extended version of the established Polar Operational Limitations Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) methodology is outlined. In contrast to the established approach, the extended version considers the magnitude of the consequences of potential adverse events. Recommended practices are outlined for assessing different types of consequences, including loss of human life as well as environmental and socio-economic damage. For assessing ships' long-term extreme hull ice loads and structural response, recommended practices are outlined concerning the utilization of various methods including analytical methods (e.g., energy-based methods), numerical methods (e.g., discrete and finite element methods), and semi-empirical methods (e.g., the event-maximum method). In addition, to support the design of ice class ship structures, a novel approach based on closed-form expressions that can be used in the conceptual design phase for the determination of preliminary scantlings for primary hull structural members (e.g., transverse web frames) is outlined.

Presenting Author: Martin Bergström Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering

Authors:

Martin Bergström Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering
Thomas Browne Memorial University of Newfoundland, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science
Sören Ehlers Hamburg University of Technology, Institute for Ship Structural Design and Analysis
Inari Helle University of Helsinki, Organismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme
Hauke Herrnring Hamburg University of Technology, Institute for Ship Structural Design and Analysis
Faisal Khan Memorial University of Newfoundland, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science
Jan Kubiczek Hamburg University of Technology, Institute for Ship Structural Design and Analysis
Pentti Kujala Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering
Mihkel Kõrgesaar Tallinn University of Technology, Estonian Maritime Academy / Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering
Bernt Johan Leira Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Department of Marine Technology
Tuuli Parviainen University of Helsinki, Ecosystems and Environment Research Programme
Arttu Polojärvi Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering
Mikko Suominen Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering
Taylor Rocky Memorial University of Newfoundland, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science
Jukka Tuhkuri Aalto University, Department of Mechanical Engineering
Jarno Vanhatalo University of Helsinki, Department of Mathematics and Statistics
Brian Veitch Memorial University of Newfoundland, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science