Session: 02-07-01 Reliability of Renewable Energy Systems

Paper Number: 78185

78185 - Optimal Management of Offshore Wind Assets at Different Stages of Life Extension Accounting for Uncertainty Propagation 

The present paper studies the variables that are contributing the most to the intrinsic value of offshore wind assets, aiming to increase operational efficiency and optimise the life extension management of offshore wind farms. In this regard, the mean wind speed, capacity factor, degradation severity, structural condition and feed-in tariff are modelled as stochastic variables. Moreover, the stochastic variables are modelled in such a way that accounts for the uncertainty propagation under pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic scenarios. The most significant stochastic variables are used to conduct a probabilistic techno-economic analysis to obtain the statistical descriptors for expected return and deviation. The expected return accounts for the time-weighted incremental cash flows. The principal component analysis identifies the correlation between the offshore wind assets based on the data collected by the structural health monitoring system, such as real-time displacement and acceleration. Finally, the optimal allocation of offshore wind assets based on the mean-variance optimisation is presented for different stages of life extension of offshore wind farms with different sizes. The optimal allocation considers different risk-adjusted return measures such as Sharpe ratio, Sortino ratio and Treynor ratio. The results of the present study can be useful for the feature engineering part of the deep neural network training for the classification of offshore wind assets.

Presenting Author: Baran Yeter Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico

Authors:

Yordan Garbatov Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico
Baran Yeter Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico
Carlos Guedes Soares Centre for Marine Technology and Ocean Engineering (CENTEC), Instituto Superior Técnico