Session: 07-9-01 Scenario-Based Risk Management for Ice-Covered Waters: LRF- CEPOLAR Activities

Paper Number: 79514

79514 - An Evaluation of Consequence Severity of Ship Evacuations in the Canadian Arctic 

The evacuation of a ship in Arctic waters exposes crew and passengers to an increased potential for severe life-safety consequences. A ship evacuation is complex, and consequence severity is influenced by a number of dynamic factors: exposure time and emergency response capacities, the number of people on board (POB), environmental conditions during evacuation and rescue, the suitability of life-saving appliances for Arctic conditions, and the level of preparedness of those on board for an evacuation. Operational risk management of Arctic shipping and the effective development of risk-based maritime regulation require evidence-based assessments of the consequence severity of ship evacuations.

This paper provides an assessment of life-safety consequence severity for a range of ship evacuation scenarios in the Canadian Arctic. Life-safety consequence severity is measured as the expected number of fatalities resulting from the evacuation. The study integrates existing models for life-safety consequence [Browne et al. 2021] and exposure time estimation [Piercey et al. 2019, Kennedy et al. 2013] for the Arctic. Factors modelled in the evacuation scenarios include different ship types and numbers of POB, estimated response time, geographic location, season, ice and metocean conditions, and the time available for evacuation. Measures that may ameliorate the life-safety risk posed by Arctic shipping are discussed.

The results of the study demonstrate an increased risk posed by specific ship types operating in Arctic regions remote from emergency response infrastructure. The study has implications to Arctic maritime policy and operational safety. Through evaluation of consequence severity of Arctic ship evacuations, more appropriate regulatory and operational constraints can be assigned to higher risk vessels and operating scenarios, enhancing the safety of passengers and crew.

Presenting Author: Thomas Browne Memorial University of Newfoundland

Authors:

Thomas Browne Memorial University of Newfoundland
Allison Kennedy National Research Council of Canada - Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering
Caitlin Piercey Memorial University of Newfoundland
Jonathan Power National Research Council of Canada - Ocean, Coastal and River Engineering
Brian Veitch Memorial University of Newfoundland, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science